The Vietnamese economy faces mounting pressures from global volatility and a domestic liquidity crunch.
Ho Chi Minh City, March 23, 2023 – After 3 years of virtual events due to the impact of the Covid pandemic, the 2023 Vietnam Forecast Dinner officially returned to Ho Chi Minh City with the participation of speakers who are economic experts, financial analysts and fund managers. The conference attracted more than 120 guests working in the field of financial investment, including nearly 40 charterholders of the CFA® Institute.
This is an annual event organized by CFA® Institute and Vietnam Community of Investment Professionals (commonly known as CFA® Community Vietnam) to discuss, share personal views and provide analysis, forecasts on the economy and capital market of Vietnam in 2023, along with an overview of related sectors such as real estate and banking.
Global challenges will have a stronger impact on Vietnam’s economy
The conference kicked off with a presentation by Mr. Nguyen Quang Hung, CFA – Economic expert at Dragon Capital, who shared some macroeconomic and capital market data for Vietnam. He emphasized the impact of global monetary tightening on money flow, money supply and market liquidity in the country.
Speaking at the event in his personal capacity, Mr. Ngo The Trieu, CFA – General Director of Eastspring Investments Fund Management Company, personally believed that the world economy had reached a stage where a downward adjustment was needed.
“In terms of cycle, it has been 15 years since the great recession of 2008, perhaps we are at the end of the recovery phase and start to decline. The world economy has shown signs of recession such as falling aggregate demand; high and persistent inflation; rising interest rates, tightening monetary and fiscal policies in many countries. I think these issues will continue. With a high degree of openness and deep integration into the world economy, even though it is in a growth phase, Vietnam cannot avoid that vortex.” Mr. Trieu shared.
CFA® Institute hosted the eighth edition of Vietnam Forecast Dinner
Monetary policy is expected to be less tense, supporting liquidity improvement of the economy
Regarding the liquidity issue of the economy, Mr. Quan Trong Thanh, MPP – Head of Research, Strategy and Banking sector of Maybank Investment Bank Securities Company gave his personal viewpoints, noting that “Vietnam will switch from a tight monetary state to a less tight one but will still maintain a cautious state.”
Also according to Mr. Quan Trong Thanh, market liquidity may recover in the medium term if supported by the following factors: 1. Increasing public investment disbursement 2. Improved interest rate situation leading to capital flow from individual investors, institutional customers and foreign investment funds returning to the stock market.
Regarding the real estate market, Ms. Ho Thi Kieu Trang, CFA – Senior Manager, Head of Real Estate Sector of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation (HSC) observed from a personal perspective, “Real estate market liquidity in the medium and long term will increase thanks to the real housing demand of Vietnam which is still very large driven by the rapidly growing middle class. However, in the short term I think liquidity will be difficult to recover due to bond issues disrupting development activities, high interest rate levels causing negative impact on demand as well as legal bottlenecks not yet resolved. The difficulties of the real estate market and related markets will create a bottleneck for capital flow in the economy. However, I think that if public investment in infrastructure is boosted, this part of capital can flow into the economy and will be a compensating factor for the liquidity shortage caused by the real estate market facing difficulties.”
Answering predictions about interest rate trends, speakers agreed highly when they all agreed that interest rates would stabilize in the short term before falling more sharply at the end of 2023 – early 2024.
(From right to left) Mr. Quan Trong Thanh, MPP, Mr. Ngo The Trieu, CFA and Ms. Ho Thi Kieu Trang, CFA exchanged at the event moderated by Mr. Nguyen Quang Hung, CFA
Speakers offered their perspectives on the timing of investment opportunities in 2023, suggesting that investors should monitor interest rate movements; government interventions on key sectors such as real estate, bonds and banking; public spending; capital inflows (credit expansion, bank funding, property liquidity, etc.) and market sentiment at critical junctures such as the end of quarter I and quarter III.
The conference fostered networking and engagement among financial experts
This is the eighth time CFA® Institute has organized the Vietnam Forecast Dinner. The participants also had the opportunity to make their own forecasts for 10 important economic and financial indicators for 2023, with the most accurate forecaster being honored and awarded at the next Forecast Dinner.
CFA® Institute and Vietnam Community of Investment Professionals (commonly known as CFA® Community Vietnam) hope that through the 2023 Vietnam Forecast Dinner, participants will receive shares from speakers, reputable guests in the country and in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as increase opportunities for connection and exchange between practitioners and experts with prestige in the industry.
|Mr. QUAN TRONG THANH, MPP
|Ms. HO THI KIEU TRANG, CFA
|Mr. NGO THE TRIEU, CFA
|Head of Research, Strategy and Banking sector
|Senior Manager, Head of Real Estate Sector
cum Head of Investments
|MAYBANK SECURITIES VIETNAM
|HO CHI MINH CITY SECURITIES CORPORATION
|EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS VIETNAM
|MR. NGUYEN QUANG HUNG, CFA
Disclaimer: The content of the exchange and discussion in the conference is for information and personal views only, and does not represent the organization or constitute investment advice in any form./.